| Indicator | What It Is | Why It Matters | What to Watch | Data Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury Yield | Benchmark for discounting REIT cash flows | Impacts REIT valuations significantly | Spike > 4% | FRED, Bloomberg |
| Mortgage Rates | Borrowing cost for homebuyers | Affects demand in housing markets | Above 7% | Freddie Mac, MBA |
| Housing Starts & Permits | Residential construction indicators | Signals supply/demand outlook | Persistent declines | Census Bureau |
| Case-Shiller Index | Home price trends | Indicates price inflation or deflation | Falling prices in major metros | S&P Dow Jones |
| Commercial Price Index (CPPI) | CRE valuation trends | Core driver for commercial REITs | Inflection points | Green Street, MSCI RCA |
| Vacancy Rates & Rent Growth | Occupancy and cash flow strength | Crucial for income forecasts | Rising vacancy or flat rent | CBRE, CoStar |
| Cap Rates | Valuation metric (NOI ÷ price) | Helps assess market valuation | Cap rate rise | NCREIF, RCA |
| Indicator | What It Is | Why It Matters | What to Watch | Data Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE Nareit Index | Equity REIT benchmark | Overall REIT market performance | Returns vs. S&P 500 | Nareit, Bloomberg |
| Dividend Yield Spread | REIT yield vs. 10Y Treasury | Relative value measure | <1.5% = warning | Nareit, FRED |
| FFO Growth | Core earnings metric | Key for valuation and growth | Declining FFO/share | Company filings (SEC EDGAR) |
| Leverage Ratios | Debt/EBITDA, coverage | Risk in rate-sensitive environment | Debt > 6x, coverage < 2x | SEC EDGAR, Bloomberg |
| NAV Premium/Discount | Price vs Net Asset Value | Shows market sentiment | Discount > -10% = value | Green Street, Nareit |
| Indicator | What It Is | Why It Matters | What to Watch | Data Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMBS Spreads | CRE credit risk spreads | Funding stress indicator | Spread widening | Trepp, CMA |
| REIT CDS | Default risk insurance | Signals credit stress | CDS spikes | S&P Global Market Intelligence (IHS Markit) |
| Repo Rates for REITs | Short-term funding cost | Liquidity barometer | Spike or tight access | NY Fed, JPM Research |
| Bank CRE Exposure | CRE-related loan health | Systemic lending conditions | Delinquencies rising | FDIC, Fed Y-9C |
| Indicator | What It Is | Why It Matters | What to Watch | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Same-Store NOI Growth | Stable asset performance | Cash flow health | Negative YoY | Company Filings |
| Leasing Spreads | Rent growth power | Indicator of pricing trend | Negative spreads | Earnings Calls |
| Occupancy Rates | Space utilization | Revenue potential | Drop > 2% | Investor Reports |
| Tenant Credit Quality | Revenue stability | Concentration risk | Top 10 tenants > 25% | 10-Ks |