Master the Art of Industry-Driven Investing with the Sector Dominance & Disruption Framework
Amateurs chase stock tickers and get swayed by daily news chatter. Professionals master industries. The market is a sea of information, and industry research is the lighthouse that allows you to navigate it, avoiding the rocks and finding the safe harbors of long-term profit.
My entire approach is built on a simple premise: It is far easier to find a great company in a great industry than a great company in a terrible industry. A rising tide lifts all boats, and I want to be in the strongest tides.
Identifying the Playing Field
We start at 30,000 feet and zoom in. The goal here is to identify which industries are worth our time and capital.
• Digitization of everything
• Rise of artificial intelligence
• Cloud computing adoption
• Energy transition (decarbonization)
• Demographic shifts (aging populations)
• Personalized medicine
Deep Dive into Your Selected Industries
Once you have a target industry (e.g., Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, Industrial Automation), you dissect it using these four pillars.
Use Porter's Five Forces as a mental model. How intense is the rivalry? Is it a fragmented price war, or an oligopoly with rational players? What are the barriers to entry (tech, capital, regulation, brand)? How much power do suppliers and customers have?
Identify industries with wide "moats"—structural advantages that protect profitability. Look for high switching costs, network effects, and intangible assets (patents, brands).
What are the fundamental economics of this industry? Is it a high-margin software business or a low-margin, capital-intensive manufacturing business? What are the key metrics? (e.g., for SaaS, it's Customer Acquisition Cost and Lifetime Value; for airlines, it's Revenue per Seat Mile).
Find industries where companies can generate high and sustainable Returns on Invested Capital (ROIC). Strong unit economics are non-negotiable.
Are regulators a tailwind or a headwind? Government subsidies, carbon taxes, data privacy laws (like GDPR), or FDA approvals can make or break an entire industry.
Position yourself in industries that are benefiting from, or at least are not being targeted by, the prevailing regulatory and political winds.
Where is the industry in its lifecycle? Is it nascent, growing, mature, or in decline? Who is driving the innovation? Is technology a deflationary force (driving prices down) or a value-add (allowing for premium pricing)?
Identify if you're looking for a dominant leader in a mature industry (Sector Dominance) or a nimble innovator poised to upend the incumbents (Disruption).
Finding Your Champion
With a deep understanding of the industry, you can now evaluate the individual companies.
Classify companies into three groups:
The established giants with significant market share (e.g., Microsoft in enterprise software).
The fast-growing upstarts trying to steal share (e.g., Snowflake vs. legacy database providers).
• Strength of management team
• Brand perception
• Product quality
• Revenue growth
• Market share trends
• Gross/operating margins
• ROIC
• Balance sheet strength
Putting It All Together
For your chosen stock(s), write down a simple thesis:
Your anchor is your industry thesis. Don't panic because the stock drops 5% on a random Tuesday.
These are the signals that invalidate your thesis.
Access to quality information is your edge. Here are the sources I rely on, categorized from institutional-grade to more accessible options.
(Expensive, but Best-in-Class)
The undisputed king. Provides real-time data, news, analyst reports, supply chain data (BICS), economic forecasts, and proprietary analytics on virtually every industry.
Powerful competitors to Bloomberg, offering deep company screening, market data, and robust industry analysis tools.
Excellent for detailed financial data, M&A activity, and industry-specific metrics. Their reports are top-notch.
The go-to sources for understanding the IT, software, and services landscape. Their "Magic Quadrant" reports are industry bibles for identifying leaders and challengers.
These top-tier consulting firms publish outstanding, free-to-access reports on major industry trends. Their research is strategic, forward-looking, and excellent for Phase 1.
A fantastic aggregator of statistics from thousands of sources. Great for quickly sizing markets (TAM) and finding key data points to support a thesis.
Their equity research departments produce some of the most detailed industry primers and company initiation reports available.
Many high-end retail brokerages (like Schwab, Fidelity) provide access to research from firms like Morningstar, CFRA, and Argus.
(The Secret Weapon)
The ultimate primary source. Read the 10-K (annual report), especially the "Business," "Risk Factors," and "Management's Discussion & Analysis" sections.
Every industry has them (e.g., Automotive News for cars, FiercePharma for biotech). They provide the "on-the-ground" color and nuance.
Listen to earnings calls. Read the transcripts and investor day presentations. Management's language and analyst questions are incredibly revealing.
By layering these sources within the SDD Framework, you move from being a reactive speculator to a proactive, thesis-driven investor. You make decisions based on deep knowledge and conviction, which is the only sustainable way to win in this game.