RLX Technology Inc. (RLX)

Comprehensive Investment Research Report

CURRENT PRICE

$1.98

YTD PERFORMANCE

-15%

MARKET CAP

$5.1B

ANALYST RATING

Hold

Company Overview

RLX Technology (NYSE: RLX) is China's leading e-vapor company, founded in 2018. The company designs, manufactures, and distributes closed-system e-cigarettes under its flagship brand RELX.

MARKET SHARE IN CHINA

70%
Dominant position in home market (CIC, 2024)

INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE

40+
Countries including Canada, Indonesia, UAE

RETAIL FOOTPRINT

150+
Offline stores complementing online sales

The company's business model relies on proprietary technology (e.g., SuperSmoothâ„¢ airflow), a vertically integrated supply chain, and omnichannel distribution. RLX has expanded internationally while maintaining its leadership position in China's e-vapor market.

Strengths

Metric Value Comparison Significance
Gross Margin (Q1 2025) 43.2% Industry Avg: 30-35% Superior pricing power and cost management
Return on Equity (FY2024) 18.5% Sector Avg: 12.8% Efficient capital allocation
Net Income (Q1 2025) $98.4M Up 12% YoY Sustained profitability growth
Cash & Equivalents $1.82B Zero debt Strong balance sheet position
Operating Cash Flow (Q1 2025) $126M Up 15% YoY Robust cash generation capabilities

Additional strengths include significant investment in R&D (7% of revenue vs. 3-5% for peers) driving product innovation, and strong brand power with #1 e-cigarette brand position in China and 90% customer retention rate.

Weaknesses & Risks

DOMESTIC REVENUE DEPENDENCE

82%
Exposes company to China regulatory shifts

INTERNATIONAL REVENUE

18%
Lags behind Smoore's 35%

INVENTORY TURNOVER

4.2x
Below Smoore's 5.8x efficiency

Key Risks

Regulatory Crackdowns Geopolitical Tensions Competition Consumer Sentiment Macroeconomic Conditions

The 2022 flavor ban in China reduced revenue from pre-ban peaks (2021 revenue: $1.1B → 2024: $840M). Potential FDA PMTA rejections in the U.S. or EU flavor bans could further disrupt international growth. U.S.-China trade friction risks include current 25% U.S. tariff on Chinese vapes.

Competitor Analysis

Company Market Cap Revenue Growth (YoY) Gross Margin Int'l Revenue %
RLX (NYSE: RLX) $5.1B +8.5% 43.2% 18%
Smoore (6969.HK) $11.3B +14.2% 38.6% 35%
Juul (Private) N/A -5.0%* ~40%* 25%*
Vuse (BTI) $72B (Parent) +22.0%* 45.0%* 60%*

Source: Company filings, Goldman Sachs Global Vape Report (2025) *Estimates

Key Competitive Takeaways

  • RLX leads in profitability but trails in global diversification
  • Smoore's ODM model drives higher growth at lower margins
  • Vuse leverages BAT's global distribution network for international reach
  • Competition intensifying in tier-2/3 Chinese cities from local brands

Recent Performance & Market Sentiment

Q1 2025 REVENUE

$245M
+8.5% YoY, beat consensus by 3%

Q1 2025 EPS

$0.07
Beat estimates of $0.06

ANALYST TARGET

$2.60
31% upside from current price

Analyst sentiment is mixed but leaning positive with 8 Buys, 5 Holds, and 2 Sells. Morgan Stanley notes: "RLX is fundamentally undervalued but requires regulatory clarity for re-rating."

Investment & Trading Insights

Long-Term Investors

  • Valuation metrics: P/E 12.5x (sector avg 18x), P/B 2.1x, dividend yield 3.2%
  • Strategy: Accumulate below $1.90 with 3-5 year horizon
  • Catalysts: Regulatory normalization in China, international expansion in SE Asia/Middle East, new product categories
  • Key monitorables: Regulatory developments, market share trends, international growth rates

Short-Term Traders

  • Technical levels: Support at $1.75 (200-day MA), resistance at $2.30
  • Range-bound strategy: Trade $1.75-$2.30 range with tight stops
  • Breakout potential: Monitor for volume-backed move above $2.10
  • Technical indicators: RSI currently neutral at 42, MACD showing early bullish crossover

Conclusion & Investment Case

Balanced Risk/Reward Profile

RLX dominates China's e-vapor market with superior margins and a fortress balance sheet. However, regulatory uncertainty and slower global growth pose material headwinds. The current valuation appears to discount these risks but requires patience and regulatory clarity for upside realization.

Bull Scenario ($3.00+)

Regulatory easing in China/EU, successful global scaling beyond current 18% international revenue, new product category success

Bear Scenario ($1.50)

New flavor bans, increased trade tariffs, market share erosion to local competitors, failure in international expansion

Recommendation

Long-Term Investors

Hold/Slight Accumulate

Short-Term Traders

Range trade with tight stops