Commodity Selection & Execution Report

Section 01

Executive Summary

IAU

iShares Gold Trust · Gold

✓ BUY — High Conviction

Strong trend metrics (ADX 33.75), exceptionally tight quoted spreads (0.01%), and very deep liquidity (30-day avg vol: 24.79M shares). Strongest uptrend consistency across timeframes.

BNO

United States Brent Oil Fund · Brent Crude

✓ BUY — Medium–High

Strongest multi-timeframe trend proxy alignment among energy ETFs. Bullish MA stack + DI dominance (ADX 29.13), with sufficient liquidity for retail allocation constraints.

PDBC

Invesco Optimum Yield · Broad Commodities

✓ BUY — Medium

Diversified commodity exposure with adequate trend metrics (ADX 26.40) and strong liquidity. Appropriate for long-horizon, long-only mandate without futures execution complexity.

⚠ Portfolio Constraint Conflict

Your "Risk per trade = 2%" and "Max allocation = 10%" settings conflict with a "Catastrophic stop = −15%" cap in a 1× ETF-only regime. If you cap position size at 10% of equity ($10,000 on a $100k account), the maximum possible loss with a −15% catastrophic stop is $1,500 (1.5% of equity). To risk a full $2,000 (2%), you would need either (a) >10% allocation, (b) >15% catastrophic stop, or (c) leverage/options — all excluded by your stated preferences.

ℹ Data Availability Caveats

COT positioning (CFTC), supply/demand balances, inventory days-of-supply vs 5–10y averages, and futures curve contango/backwardation were not retrieved in quantified form. MACD histogram, OBV, Acc/Dist, and CMF were unavailable in accessible snapshot tables — flagged as N/A throughout and replaced with disciplined proxies (MA-stack, ADX/+DI/−DI, RSI/Stoch).

Selection Process

PHASE 1

Technical Composite Score

›

PHASE 2

Fundamentals + Term Structure + COT

›

PHASE 3

Risk Scenarios + Stress Tests

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PHASE 4

Trade Plan: Entry, Size, Stops

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PHASE 5

Monitoring Dashboard + Exit Matrix

Section 02

Universe Compilation

Selection standard: US-listed, long-only, 1×, minimum liquidity target >$25M/day, ETF spreads ideally <0.1%, session-limited trading acceptable. Issuer pages used as primary liquidity source for IAU and SLV. Barchart Technical Analysis snapshot tables used for remaining ETFs.

ETF	Exposure	Primary Commodity	AUM / Net Assets	30d Avg Vol	Spread Proxy	Options	Notes
GLD	Physical bullion	Gold	$174.47B	20d avg (snapshot)	N/A	Yes	Largest gold ETF globally
IAU ★	Physical bullion	Gold	$68.58B	24.79M shares	0.01%	Yes	Highly liquid, tightest spread in universe
SLV	Physical bullion	Silver	Est. from shares×price	155.33M shares	0.01%	Yes	Very high liquidity
PDBC ★	Futures (opt. roll)	Diversified Commodities	N/A	YTD avg (snapshot)	N/A	N/A	No K-1 design; roll profile is key
DBC	Futures commodity index	Diversified Commodities	N/A	0.88M shares	N/A	N/A	Near $25M/day cutoff depending on price
USO	Futures-based	WTI Crude Oil	N/A	7.58M shares	N/A	N/A	Roll yield critical (contango risk)
BNO ★	Futures-based	Brent Crude Oil	N/A	0.87M shares	N/A	N/A	Best trend metrics among energy ETFs
UNG	Futures-based	Natural Gas	N/A	N/A (inconsistent)	N/A	N/A	Very high vol regime; trend ambiguous
DBA	Futures-based	Agriculture Basket	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	Trend weak (low ADX)
CORN	Futures-based	Corn	N/A	71K shares	N/A	N/A	Likely fails $25M/day threshold

Core Futures Overlay (Tradability Reference)

Commodity	Contract (Root)	Primary Exchange	Options	ETF Proxy
Gold	GC	CME/COMEX	Yes	IAU / GLD
Silver	SI	CME/COMEX	Yes	SLV
WTI Crude	CL	CME/NYMEX	Yes	USO
Brent Crude	ICE Brent	ICE Futures	Yes	BNO
Natural Gas	NG	CME/NYMEX	Yes	UNG
Corn	ZC	CBOT	Yes	CORN (illiquid)

Primary COT data: CFTC Disaggregated + Legacy reports · Inventory: EIA (DCOILWTICO / DHHNGSP via FRED) · Agriculture: USDA WASDE

Section 03

Technical Composite Ranking

Composite score applies your prescribed weights: Trend Strength (40%) · Momentum Quality (30%) · Volume & Participation (20%) · Structure & Pattern Recognition (10%). MACD, OBV, Acc/Dist, and CMF were unavailable in retrieved snapshots; scores use disciplined proxies (ADX/+DI/−DI, MA stack alignment, RSI/Stoch).

Rank	Ticker	Commodity	Composite (0–100)	ADX(14)	+DI − −DI	RSI(14)	ATR(14)	HV(100d)	Daily/Wk/Mo Uptrend	MACD	OBV
1	BNO	Brent Oil	78.6	29.13	+14.12	55.68	0.80	26.73%	✓ / ✓ / ✓	N/A	N/A
2	DBC	Broad Commodities	78.1	28.88	+12.56	53.55	0.46	16.59%	✓ / ✓ / ✓	N/A	N/A
3	IAU	Gold	66.0	33.75	+9.10	56.10	3.07	—	✓ / ✓ / ✓	N/A	N/A
4	GLD	Gold	65.6	24.54	−1.27	52.41	15.23	33.71%	✗ / ✓ / ✓	N/A	N/A
5	USO	WTI Crude	54.0	23.46	+9.33	50.44	1.98	28.17%	✗ / ✓ / ✗	N/A	N/A
6	PDBC	Broad Commodities	51.0	26.40	+7.50	50.40	0.25	17.05%	✓ / ✓ / ✓	N/A	N/A
7	CORN	Corn	50.7	27.15	−0.89	54.00	0.21	15.53%	✗ / ✗ / ✗	N/A	N/A
8	SLV	Silver	47.0	27.01	−0.47	46.37	0.57	27.76%	✗ / ✗ / ✗	N/A	N/A
9	UNG	Natural Gas	35.1	15.18	−1.12	46.66	0.90	81.81%	✗ / ✗ / ✗	N/A	N/A
10	DBA	Agriculture	28.8	11.27	+5.03	48.09	0.16	10.39%	✗ / ✗ / ✗	N/A	N/A

* Volume/structure proxy scores derived only where 20d and 100d average volumes and MA stacks were available in snapshot tables. UNG: PASS — low ADX, −DI dominance, HV100 = 81.81% (risk control fail for 1× long-only at 10% allocation).

Section 04

Fundamental & Market Structure Assessment

Retrieved Data (Quantified)

IAU

Gold Trust · Metal-in-Trust Inventory

Quantified

Tonnes in Trust499.84 t

Ounces in Trust16.07M oz

Snapshot DateFeb 2026

UseVehicle-level flow proxy (creation/redemption pressure)

SLV

Silver Trust · Metal-in-Trust Inventory

Quantified

Tonnes in Trust15,830.38 t

Snapshot DateFeb 2026

Primary SeriesFRED · DCOILWTICO (WTI)

Gas SeriesFRED · DHHNGSP (Henry Hub)

Required Fundamentals Not Retrieved — Primary Source Endpoints

Dataset	Asset(s)	Primary Source	Fill Priority
COT Disaggregated Positioning	All futures	CFTC Disaggregated + Legacy Reports	Critical
Crude inventories / days-of-supply vs 5–10y avg	WTI, Brent	EIA Weekly Petroleum Supply (DCOILWTICO via FRED)	Critical
Nat-gas storage (working gas) + LNG exports	NG / UNG	EIA Storage Report (DHHNGSP via FRED)	High
Grain stocks-to-use + days-of-supply	DBA, CORN	USDA WASDE	High
Futures curve (contango/backwardation %)	All futures-based ETFs	Exchange settlement curves (CME, ICE)	Critical (roll yield)
China % global demand by commodity	All industrial	Industry demand statistics / IEA / USDA	Medium

Section 05

Risk Modeling & Stress Tests

Monte Carlo parameters sourced from retrieved HV(100d) and 200-day percent-change as drift proxy. 1,000 iterations, lognormal GBM, horizons 3/6/12 months. Note: Using recent 200-day returns as "drift" can materially overstate forward returns after strong trend runs; VaR/CVaR are more stable than mean forecasts.

GLD · Gold ETF · HV100: 33.71%

3 Month

+16.7%

VaR 95%: −12.2%

CVaR 95%: −18.0%

VaR 99%: −20.8%

CVaR 99%: −25.5%

6 Month

+34.9%

VaR 95%: −11.7%

CVaR 95%: −18.7%

VaR 99%: −22.5%

CVaR 99%: −26.7%

12 Month

+83.2%

VaR 95%: ~0.0%

CVaR 95%: −12.2%

VaR 99%: −20.4%

CVaR 99%: −26.0%

USO · WTI Crude ETF · HV100: 28.17%

3 Month

+5.9%

VaR 95%: −16.4%

CVaR 95%: −21.1%

VaR 99%: −23.3%

CVaR 99%: −27.2%

6 Month

+11.2%

VaR 95%: −21.7%

CVaR 95%: −26.9%

VaR 99%: −29.7%

CVaR 99%: −33.0%

12 Month

+24.3%

VaR 95%: −24.5%

CVaR 95%: −32.3%

VaR 99%: −37.6%

CVaR 99%: −41.3%

DBC · Broad Commodities · HV100: 16.59%

3 Month

+4.1%

VaR 95%: −9.2%

CVaR 95%: −12.3%

VaR 99%: −13.7%

6 Month

+7.8%

VaR 95%: −11.9%

CVaR 95%: −15.5%

VaR 99%: −17.4%

12 Month

+16.5%

VaR 95%: −12.3%

CVaR 95%: −17.8%

VaR 99%: −21.6%

BNO · Brent Crude · HV100: 26.73%

3 Month

+6.1%

VaR 95%: −15.2%

CVaR 95%: −19.7%

VaR 99%: −21.9%

6 Month

+11.6%

VaR 95%: −19.9%

CVaR 95%: −25.0%

VaR 99%: −27.7%

12 Month

+25.2%

VaR 95%: −21.8%

CVaR 95%: −29.5%

VaR 99%: −34.8%

Probability-Weighted Risk Scenarios

Asset	Risk Factor	Probability	Impact	Horizon	Leading Indicators	Mitigation
IAU	USD rebound / real rates up	Medium	Moderate	3–12m	DXY trend, real yields	Tighten stops, reduce size on trend break
IAU	Trend exhaustion after strong run	Medium	Moderate	1–6m	RSI >75, falling +DI vs −DI	Scale-out at T1/T2, trail stop
BNO	Demand shock / recession	Medium	Severe	6–12m	Global PMI, freight, spreads	Smaller size, quicker trailing stop
BNO	Contango / negative roll yield	Medium	Moderate	3–12m	Curve slope: front vs 6–12m	Prefer ETF with better roll; reduce if contango steepens
PDBC	Commodity dispersion / index drag	Medium	Moderate	6–12m	Component trends diverge	Use as core, supplement with single-commodity winners
PDBC	Inflation regime shift / USD shock	Medium	Moderate	3–12m	Inflation surprises, USD momentum	Hedge USD risk at portfolio level

Section 06

Actionable Trade Plans

IAU

BUY — High Conviction

iShares Gold Trust · 6–12m+ Horizon

Position Sizing — $100k Account

Max Allocation10% → $10,000

Entry (Snapshot)~$95.76

ATR(14)3.07

Stop (2×ATR)$89.62

Max Shares (cap)104 shares

Dollar Risk at Stop~$638 (0.64% equity)

Constraint NoteCannot reach 2% risk at 10% cap

Stop Architecture

Initial Hard Stop2×ATR below entry

Trail Activation+10% profit

Trail Distance1.5–2×ATR

Catastrophic Stop−15% from entry

T1 Take Profit+10–15% → 30–40% off

T2 Take Profit+25–35% → 30–40% off

T3 Remainder+50%+ → trail stop

Entry Confirmation Checklist

ADX(14) ≥ 25 and +DI > −DI (trend present)
RSI(14) in 50–70 range (avoid chasing overbought)
Spread remains ~0.01% median environment
Conservative: scale-in on pullback toward key trend support while RSI ≥ 50

BNO

BUY — Medium–High

US Brent Oil Fund · 6–12m+ Horizon

Entry Zones (MA-Anchored)

Conservative EntryPullback toward MA20 ≈ $31.57

Add-on EntryRetrace to MA50 ≈ $29.83

ConditionADX > 25 and +DI dominant required for add-on

Stop Architecture & Sizing

ATR(14)0.80

Hard Stop (2×ATR)Entry − $1.60

Catastrophic Stop−15% from entry

Max Shares (at $31.57)~317 shares

Dollar Risk~$507 (0.51% equity)

Roll & Curve Risk Note

BNO is futures-linked. Term structure (contango/backwardation) materially affects holding-period performance versus spot. Monitor front vs deferred month settlement spread. Curve metrics were not retrieved in this run — populate from CME/ICE exchange settlements before initiating position. Never pyramid into a losing position.

PDBC

BUY — Medium

Invesco Optimum Yield · Broad Commodities · 6–12m+

Entry Strategy

AggressiveADX > 25, RSI 50–70

ConservativeScale on pullbacks

ApproachPrefer smaller adds, protect capital via stops (diversified baskets can chop)

Stop Architecture

ATR(14)0.25

Hard Stop (2×ATR)Entry − $0.50

Catastrophic Stop−15% from entry

Profit LadderT1/T2/T3 (same as IAU)

Section 07

Monitoring Framework & Exit Matrix

Daily Dashboard

Price vs MAsBelow MA50 = warn / Below MA200 = exit

Trend StrengthADX <20 = weak / +DI < −DI = bearish

VolatilityATR jumps >30% → size review

Execution QualitySpread vs typical median

Weekly Checklist (15 min)

Uptrend intact (daily/weekly/monthly confirmations)
No thesis breakers (fundamental updates)
Stops adjusted (trail if +10% profit; never loosen)
Position still ≤10% portfolio

Monthly Deep Dive (30 min)

Update scenario probabilities (recession, supply shocks)
Re-score composite table with updated indicators
Add COT + term structure once populated

Exit Trigger Matrix

Mandatory Exits (No Exceptions)

Stop-loss hit
Close below MA50 and MA200 (confirm with +DI/−DI)
Risk scenario becomes High Probability + Severe Impact

Discretionary Exits (Evaluate)

RSI >80 with divergence (avoid giving back trend profits)
Volatility spike + illiquid tape (spread widening)

Section 08

Data Gaps & Caveats

The following required fields were not retrieved in quantified form during this research run. Primary-source endpoints are provided for manual population.

✗

COT Positioning (CFTC) Commercial vs large spec vs small trader breakdown not produced. Primary repository: CFTC Disaggregated and Legacy market reports — located but not ingested into usable dataset.

✗

Inventory Levels / Days-of-Supply Oil/gas inventory vs 5–10y averages not computed. EIA release lineage confirmed via FRED (DCOILWTICO, DHHNGSP) but detailed release tables not parsed.

✗

Futures Curve / Contango / Roll Yield Front-month vs deferred settlement spread not computed. Requires exchange settlement curves (CME, ICE) — not accessed in this run. Critical for all futures-based ETFs (USO, UNG, DBC, PDBC, BNO, DBA).

✗

MACD / OBV / Acc-Dist / CMF Not available in Barchart Technical Analysis snapshot tables used here. Flagged N/A throughout; replaced with disciplined proxies (ADX, MA stack, RSI/Stoch).

✗

Agriculture Supply/Demand (USDA WASDE) Grain stocks, stock-to-use ratios, and days-of-supply not retrieved. Primary source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

✗

China % Global Demand by Commodity Demand sensitivity scalar not retrieved. Applicable to industrial metals, energy, soft commodities. Source: IEA, USDA, industry demand statistics.