NASDAQ: ZION

Zions Bancorporation
Comprehensive Investment Research Report

February 10, 2026 | Regional Banking Sector Analysis

Executive Summary

Zions Bancorporation, N.A. (NASDAQ: ZION) is a regional commercial bank operating under a multi‑brand model across several western U.S. states. Over the last year the bank has improved its net interest margin and capital ratios, while maintaining sound credit quality and a loyal deposit franchise. At 31 December 2025 the bank reported ~$89 billion of total assets, a common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.5%, net interest margin (NIM) of 3.31% and annualised net charge‑offs of 0.05%. Customer deposits grew 1.1% from the prior quarter, and deposit costs declined to 1.56%. The board authorised a $75 million share repurchase program for the first quarter of 2026 and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share payable 19 February 2026.

Zions trades at ~10.8× trailing EPS and ~1.6× tangible book value, with a 2.77% dividend yield based on the $65.00 share price on 10 February 2026. Despite solid capital and credit metrics, valuation multiples already discount much of the recent improvement. The residual income and dividend‑discount models produce intrinsic value estimates in the low‑to‑mid $30s, suggesting the stock may be fairly valued or modestly overvalued. Investors must weigh high interest‑rate sensitivity and concentrated commercial real estate (CRE) exposure against a strong deposit franchise, improving capital base and disciplined management.

Total Assets
$89B
CET1 Ratio
11.5%
Net Interest Margin
3.31%
Net Charge-offs
0.05%

1. Bank Overview and Business Model

Structure and Charter

Zions Bancorporation, National Association is a national bank regulated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Reserve. It operates under seven locally branded affiliate banks—Zions Bank, California Bank & Trust (CB&T), Amegy Bank, National Bank of Arizona (NBAZ), Nevada State Bank (NSB), Vectra Bank Colorado and The Commerce Bank of Washington. Each affiliate bank has its own management team and branding, with centralized risk management and back‑office functions provided by the corporate parent. The group's head office is in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Geographic Footprint

Zions' footprint spans the western and southwestern U.S. Zions Bank operates 92 branches in Utah, 25 in Idaho and one in Wyoming and holds the largest deposit market share in Utah and the fourth largest in Idaho. CB&T runs 75 branches in California, while Amegy Bank focuses on Texas, NBAZ on Arizona, NSB on Nevada, Vectra Bank on Colorado and The Commerce Bank of Washington on Seattle. The bank's markets are demographically diverse but share above‑average population growth and significant small‑ and medium‑sized business (SMB) activity.

Business Lines

Zions provides a full suite of commercial and consumer banking services:

Asset Size and Sector Positioning

As of 31 December 2025 Zions had about $89 billion in total assets and net revenue of $3.4 billion. Within the U.S. banking sector, Zions is classified as a mid‑sized regional bank. Its asset size is larger than many community banks but significantly smaller than national banks like JPMorgan or Wells Fargo. Management emphasises relationship banking and a conservative risk culture.

2. Financial Performance Analysis

Net Interest Income and Net Interest Margin

Net interest income (NII) is Zions' largest revenue source. For Q4 2025, NII was $683 million and net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 3.31%. Full‑year 2025 NIM averaged 3.21%, up from 2.84% in 2024. Rising interest rates and a favorable deposit mix drove the improvement. Average deposits grew 2.3% sequentially, while the cost of total deposits declined 11 bp to 1.56%. Net interest margin has improved for eight consecutive quarters.

Interest Rate Management: Zions manages interest‑rate risk through a modestly asset‑sensitive balance sheet. The investment securities portfolio has a 3.8‑year duration. Management expects two 25 bp Fed rate cuts in 2026; additional cuts could compress NIM but deposit repricing lags and reduced wholesale funding may provide a buffer.

Non‑Interest Income

Customer‑related non‑interest income totaled $177 million in Q4 2025, compared with $163 million in the prior quarter and $176 million a year earlier. Revenue sources include service charges on deposits, card fees, wealth management and municipal underwriting. Non‑interest income represented ~20% of total revenue in 2025, lower than peers due to Zions' focus on spread income. Brokerage, swap and capital markets fees are modest. The relatively narrow fee base adds to earnings volatility.

Efficiency Ratio and Expense Management

The efficiency ratio improved to 62.3% in Q4 2025 and 62.6% for FY 2025, down from 64.2% in 2024. Management completed a multi‑year FutureCore technology modernization project in July 2024. Operating expenses will likely rise modestly in 2026 due to marketing and digital initiatives, but management aims to maintain a low‑60s efficiency ratio.

Profitability Metrics

Return on average assets (ROA) increased to 1.14% in Q4 2025 (1.02% for FY 2025). Return on average common equity (ROE) was 13.2% and return on average tangible common equity (ROTCE) 17.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) for FY 2025 were $6.01, up 21% from 2024. Quarterly EPS beat consensus in each quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025 EPS $1.48 vs. $1.19 estimate), reflecting both NIM expansion and disciplined expense control. Analysts expect FY 2026 EPS of ~$5.65.

Earnings Quality

Earnings quality is strong: net charge‑offs remain low (0.05% in Q4 2025) and the bank recognised only a $6 million provision for credit losses in the quarter. Adjusted results exclude a $15 million charitable contribution recorded in 2025. Unrealised losses in the securities portfolio (accumulated other comprehensive income, AOCI) continue to amortise as securities mature, contributing to a 21% increase in tangible book value per share.

3. Balance Sheet Strength

Capital Ratios

Zions is well capitalised. At 31 December 2025 the CET1 ratio was 11.5%, compared with 10.9% at year‑end 2024. Total risk‑based capital ratio is estimated at ~13.9%. The Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.3% at year‑end 2024. Regulatory minimums plus capital conservation buffers require CET1 of 7% and leverage ratio of 4%, so Zions maintains a sizeable cushion.

Asset Quality

Nonperforming assets (NPAs) were 0.52% of loans and other real estate owned at Q4 2025. Classified loans declined sequentially, with criticized loans ratio 4.7% and classified loans ratio 3.91%. The allowance for credit losses (ACL) to loans stood at 1.19%. Net charge‑offs were 0.05% annualised in Q4 2025 and 0.15% for the year. Asset quality metrics compare favorably to peers and remain near historic lows.

Loan Portfolio Composition

Zions' loan portfolio totaled approximately $45 billion at year‑end 2024 and is well diversified. Commercial & industrial loans accounted for ~37% of loans ($16.9 B), CRE loans ~30% ($13.5 B), and consumer/residential loans ~33% ($15 B).

CRE Exposure Note: Within CRE, management emphasises granular exposure with low loan‑to‑value ratios and limited office exposure (< 10% of loans). Classified CRE balances declined by $132 million in Q4 2025. Construction loans are carefully managed, and the bank has instituted limits by property type and geography.

Deposit Base and Liquidity

Total deposits were $75.6 billion at year‑end 2025, of which customer deposits were $71.8 billion. The deposit mix at 31 December 2024 consisted of 32.4% non‑interest‑bearing demand deposits, 52.5% savings/money market deposits, 8.5% time deposits and 6.6% brokered deposits. Approximately 55% of deposits were FDIC‑insured. Zions emphasises granular, relationship‑based deposits and has attracted inflows even amid industry turmoil. The cost of total deposits declined 11 bp sequentially to 1.56% in Q4 2025. The bank reduced short‑term borrowings by 17% during the quarter, bringing total funding costs to 1.76%. The loan‑to‑deposit ratio was ~78%.

4. Strengths

  1. Competitive Deposit Franchise: Zions commands leading deposit market share in Utah and strong positions in Idaho, Nevada and Arizona. The deposit base is granular and cost‑effective; non‑interest‑bearing deposits represent over one‑third of funding. Customer deposits grew in 2025 despite industry outflows.
  2. Strong Credit Underwriting: Asset quality metrics such as NPAs (0.52%) and net charge‑offs (0.05%) remain among the best in the peer group. CRE portfolio is diversified by property type and geography with disciplined concentration limits.
  3. Robust Capital Position: CET1 ratio of 11.5% provides a cushion above regulatory minimums and supports potential capital distribution increases. Tangible book value per share increased 21% year‑over‑year.
  4. Diversified Revenue Streams: While spread income dominates, the bank also generates fee income from treasury management, card and wealth management services. It holds market share in SBA lending and public finance.
  5. Experienced Management Team: CEO Harris Simmons has led Zions since 1990 and is supported by a seasoned executive team. The team emphasises conservative underwriting, risk management and long‑term shareholder value.
  6. Digital Banking Investments: The FutureCore project modernised the bank's core loan and deposit systems in 2024. Ongoing investments in digital account opening and treasury services should enhance customer retention and operational efficiency.

5. Weaknesses

  1. Geographic Concentration: The bank operates primarily in the western U.S., leaving it exposed to regional economic downturns (e.g., energy downturn in Texas or real‑estate corrections in Utah or California). Diversification across states helps but does not eliminate this risk.
  2. Dependence on Spread Income: Net interest income constitutes roughly 80% of revenue; fee income is modest. Heavy reliance on NIM makes earnings sensitive to interest‑rate changes and competitive deposit pricing.
  3. Commercial Real Estate Exposure: CRE loans represent roughly 30% of total loans. Although the portfolio is diversified and low‑LTV, the sector remains vulnerable to economic downturns, especially in the office segment.
  4. Efficiency Ratio Still Above Peers: While improving, the 62% efficiency ratio is higher than some regional peers that operate in the mid‑50s. Increased investment in marketing and technology may limit further improvement.
  5. Limited Non‑Bank Businesses: Zions lacks large-scale wealth management, investment banking or insurance operations that diversify revenue and offset NIM pressure. This limits the bank's ability to generate fee income relative to peers.

6. Risks

Critical Risk Factors

Operational & Technological Risk: Cyber‑security threats, fraud and technology failures pose ongoing operational risk. While the FutureCore upgrade reduces legacy risk, system conversion or third‑party failures could disrupt operations.

Macroeconomic Risk: A recession, rising unemployment or falling commodity prices could reduce loan demand and increase credit losses. Systemic shocks could trigger deposit flight or funding stress.

Market/Trading Risk: Interest‑rate and credit spread volatility affect the value of the securities portfolio and AOCI. Mark‑to‑market losses could erode capital ratios and restrict distributions.

Strategic/Execution Risk: Integration of digital initiatives and deposit‑growth programs may be slower than planned. Management may face challenges in balancing growth with credit discipline.

Reputational Risk: Customer dissatisfaction, regulatory fines or ESG issues could harm the bank's reputation and lead to deposit attrition.

7. Regulatory Environment and Compliance

Zions is regulated by the OCC (as a national bank), the Federal Reserve and the FDIC. It is subject to capital and liquidity rules under Basel III and the Dodd‑Frank Act. The bank passed its 2025 regulatory stress testing requirements and remains "well‑capitalised." Credit ratings from major agencies show moderate investment‑grade status: Moody's A2 for long‑term deposits and Baa2 for long‑term issuer, KBRA A‑ for long‑term deposits, and Fitch BBB+ for long‑term issuer. Short‑term deposit ratings are P‑1 (Moody's), K2 (KBRA) and F2 (Fitch). Ratings outlooks are stable.

Recent regulatory scrutiny focuses on liquidity management following the 2023 regional bank failures. Zions' 2024 Form 10‑K emphasises interest‑rate and liquidity risk management and notes that mismatches in rate sensitivity could hurt earnings. The bank also warns that liquidity could be pressured if customer deposits decline or if access to the Federal Home Loan Bank or Federal Reserve facilities is reduced. There were no material enforcement actions disclosed as of early 2026.

8. Competitors and Competitive Landscape

Zions competes primarily with regional banks in the western U.S. The peer group includes East West Bancorp (EWBC), Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Comerica (CMA), KeyCorp (KEY), Regions Financial (RF) and Truist Financial (TFC). Larger national banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) also compete in certain markets. Credit unions and fintechs create additional competition for deposits.

Comparative Metrics (FY 2025/Early 2026)

Bank Assets ROE CET1 Efficiency P/E P/TBV Div Yield
Zions (ZION) $89 B 13.2% 11.5% 62% 10.8× 1.6× 2.8%
East West (EWBC) $77 B 19% 14% 40–45% 7–8× ~1.3× 3.0%
Western Alliance (WAL) $70 B 15% 11% 50% ~1.1× 2.5%
Fifth Third (FITB) $214 B 13% 10% 60% 10× ~1.7× 3.6%
Huntington (HBAN) $188 B 12% 9.7% 58% 10× ~1.8× 4.0%
Citizens (CFG) $220 B 10% 9.9% 58% 1.1× 4.7%
Comerica (CMA) $86 B 11% 10% 67% 10× 1.4× 5.2%
KeyCorp (KEY) $186 B 9% 9.2% 63% 1.3× 3.5%
Regions (RF) $163 B 14% 10.3% 55% 1.5× 3.3%
Truist (TFC) $576 B 11% 10.4% 55% 1.2× 5.6%

Compared with peers, Zions has a strong capital base and competitive ROE, but its efficiency ratio is higher and P/TBV multiple is elevated. The bank's reliance on spread income and significant CRE exposure differentiate it from East West and Western Alliance, which have stronger fee franchises. Market share in Utah and Idaho is a key competitive advantage, while in California and Texas Zions faces intense competition from large banks.

9. Analyst Coverage and Professional Recommendations

Sell‑Side Coverage and Ratings

According to TickerNerd (based on January 2026 data), 43 Wall Street analysts cover Zions Bancorporation with a median price target of $66 (range $59–75); the consensus rating is Neutral/Hold. The distribution includes 6 Buy ratings, 16 Hold ratings and 1 Sell rating.

Recent upgrades include:

Consensus Themes: Bullish analysts highlight improving profitability, robust capital and deposit franchise, and potential for capital distribution increases. Bearish analysts focus on CRE concentration, interest‑rate sensitivity and limited fee diversification.

Institutional Ownership and Insider Activity

Large institutional holders include Vanguard Group (~10%), BlackRock (~8%), State Street (~4%) and Capital Research. Insider ownership is modest (~2%) with Chairman/CEO Harris Simmons owning ~1%. Insider selling has been minimal; there were no significant open‑market sales in 2025.

10. Growth Potential

Historical Growth

Loans and Deposits: Over 2019–2024, Zions' loans and deposits grew at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of ~4% and 5%, respectively. Loan growth stalled in 2023 due to weak demand but resumed in 2024–2025, driven by C&I and consumer loans.

Earnings: EPS grew ~21% in 2025 following three years of stagnant earnings; from 2019 to 2024 EPS CAGR was ~5%.

Market Share: The bank maintains leading market share in Utah and strong positions in other western states. It has gained share in small‑business lending and public finance.

Future Growth Drivers

11. Management Quality and Corporate Governance

Experience and Track Record

Chairman and CEO Harris Simmons has served since 1990; under his leadership Zions avoided risky derivative activities and maintained strong capital. The executive team includes President and COO Scott McLean and CFO Ryan Richards, both veterans with decades of industry experience. The board of directors is largely independent, with diverse professional backgrounds.

Capital Allocation Philosophy

Zions uses earnings to support organic growth, maintain capital ratios and return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The bank increased its quarterly dividend to $0.45 in Q3 2025 and authorised a $75 million share repurchase program for Q1 2026. Historically, the payout ratio has been ~30%. Management prioritises tangible book value growth and will only pursue acquisitions that meet return thresholds.

Board Independence and Compensation

The board comprises 12 directors, 10 of whom are independent. Executive compensation aligns with shareholder returns through performance‑based incentives tied to ROE, EPS growth and relative total shareholder return. No significant governance controversies have been reported.

Communication and Transparency

Zions provides detailed quarterly earnings presentations and Q&A sessions with analysts. The bank posts transcripts, slide decks and regulatory filings on its investor‑relations website. The clarity of disclosures around deposit composition, CRE exposure and interest‑rate sensitivity is a positive for investors. However, the bank does not publish a forward guidance range for earnings, which can make forecasting difficult.

12. Valuation Analysis

Relative Valuation

Zions' share price was $65.00 on 10 February 2026. With trailing EPS of $6.01, the trailing P/E ratio is 10.8× and the forward P/E ratio ~11.5× (based on 2026 consensus EPS of $5.65). The price‑to‑tangible book value (P/TBV) is 1.6×, using tangible book value per share of $40.79. Zions trades at a premium to many regional peers on P/TBV but at a similar P/E multiple.

The dividend yield is 2.77% (annual dividend $1.80 divided by $65.00). The bank's payout ratio (~30%) is below peers; thus there is room for dividend increases once regulatory approval is obtained. Compared with peers, Zions' valuation is roughly in line on earnings but higher on tangible book value due to its improved ROTCE. The market is pricing in continued credit strength and NIM expansion.

Absolute Valuation

We performed discounted dividend (DDM) and residual income analyses using different assumptions for cost of equity and growth. With a cost of equity of 10.3% (risk‑free rate 4%, beta 1.15 and equity risk premium 5.5%) and dividend growth of 4%, the DDM yields an intrinsic value of ≈ $31 per share, significantly below the current price. Using a lower 9% cost of equity and 5% long‑term growth, the value rises to ≈ $47. Residual income modeling (ROE 13%, payout ratio 30%, cost of equity 10.3%) suggests a fair value near $40 per share, implying the stock trades at a premium. These valuations are highly sensitive to the cost of equity and long‑term growth assumptions; investors who believe Zions can sustain a 17–18% ROTCE may justify a higher intrinsic value.

Sensitivity Analysis

Key variables include the NIM trajectory (each 10 bp change can move EPS by ~$0.20), credit costs (every 10 bp increase in charge‑offs reduces EPS by ~$0.06), and share repurchases (a $75 million buyback could add ~0.15% to EPS). Valuation ranges from $30–$48 per share under realistic scenarios, highlighting potential downside if rates fall sharply or credit losses rise.

13. Overall Quality Assessment

Dimension
Assessment
Rationale
Financial Strength
Strong
High capital ratios (CET1 11.5%), low NPAs (0.52%) and net charge‑offs (0.05%). Adequate liquidity and diversified funding base.
Franchise Quality
Premium
Leading market share in Utah and strong positions in adjacent states. Granular deposits and strong SBA/public finance niches. Modernised core systems support digital growth.
Management Execution
Good
Experienced leadership with conservative risk culture and proven ability to navigate cycles. FutureCore completed on budget. Efficiency ratio still lags best‑in‑class peers.
Growth Outlook
Average
Loan and deposit growth expected in the mid‑single digits; limited fee‑income diversification; opportunities in wealth and fintech expansion. CRE headwinds persist.
Overall Investment Quality
Above Average
Zions offers a well‑capitalised, regionally dominant bank with strong credit metrics and improving profitability. However, the valuation already reflects much of the improvement, and earnings remain highly sensitive to interest rates and CRE health.

14. Investment and Trading Strategy Recommendation

HOLD – Accumulate on Pullbacks

Investment Thesis Summary

Zions Bancorporation presents a compelling blend of strong capital, improving profitability and a loyal deposit franchise. The bank has successfully expanded its NIM and grown tangible book value while maintaining excellent credit quality. Its markets benefit from demographic growth, and management is investing in technology to enhance efficiency. However, high exposure to CRE and heavy reliance on net interest income introduce downside risks if rates fall or credit stress emerges. The stock's current valuation (~10.8× earnings, 1.6× tangible book) leaves less margin of safety, and absolute valuation models suggest limited upside. Therefore, investors should adopt a balanced strategy with careful entry points and risk management.

Comprehensive Strategy

Entry Strategy

Position Sizing

For diversified portfolios, allocate 2–3% of total portfolio value to ZION. Given the cyclical nature of banking stocks, maximum position size should not exceed 4%.

Price Targets

Exit Strategy

Risk Management

Time Horizon and Investor Profile

Suitable for medium‑term investors (6–18 months) seeking moderate dividend income and potential capital appreciation. Not ideal for very conservative investors due to interest‑rate and CRE exposure.

Key Catalysts to Monitor

Alternative Scenarios

Bull Case

The Fed holds rates higher for longer, NIM expands further to 3.35%, credit losses remain minimal, deposit growth accelerates and fee initiatives add revenue. ROTCE stays above 16%, supporting a valuation of 13× earnings and an $80 share price.

Base Case

NIM stabilises around 3.2%, loan growth in mid‑single digits, CRE stress manageable. EPS ~$5.65–5.75, valuation 11–12× earnings, target $68–72.

Bear Case

Aggressive Fed cuts compress NIM below 3%, CRE losses increase NPAs to >1% and capital ratios decline. EPS falls below $5, P/E contracts to 8×, sending the stock to the $40–45 range.

15. Key Risks to Thesis

Conclusion

Zions Bancorporation is a quality regional bank with a strong deposit franchise, conservative credit culture and improving profitability. The bank's high capital levels and consistent tangible book value growth provide flexibility for dividend increases and share repurchases. Nonetheless, heavy reliance on net interest income and sizeable CRE exposure create meaningful downside risk if economic conditions deteriorate or interest rates fall. At the current valuation, the stock appears fairly valued, offering limited upside relative to risk. A Hold recommendation is warranted; investors may accumulate shares on pullbacks into the mid‑50s but should employ strict risk controls.